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Obamacare to Drain Support for Democratic Candidates in 2014

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

New National Poll: Obamacare to Drain Support for Democratic Candidates in 2014

  • For 2016 presidential race: Clinton, Biden, Cuomo and Warren lead among Democrats
  • Bush, Rubio, Paul, Cruz & Christie lead among Republicans

PITTSBURGH – Nagging concerns over The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, appear likely to cost the Democratic Party during the 2014 congressional elections, according to the latest survey by The Robert Morris University Polling Institute Powered by Trib Total Media.

The poll surveyed 1,006 American adults, and also found that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are the early favorites for their party’s presidential nominations in 2016.

Among the major findings:

  • Two-fifths of all respondents, or 40%, indicate they are somewhat or much less likely to support a candidate that supported or voted for Obamacare than those (32.5%) indicating they would be somewhat or much more likely to support a candidate who supported or voted for the Act.
  • Among likely voters who are Republicans, the leading contenders for the Republican nomination for president are former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (in declining order).
  • Among likely voters who are Democrats, the leading contenders for the Democratic nomination for president are former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vice President Joe Biden, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (in declining order).

“What really jumps out here is gender and marital status. Among likely voters in this poll, the opposition to Obamacare is being driven by women,” said RMU political scientist Philip Harold. “Male likely voters are actually in favor of Obamacare according to our poll.”

Among likely voters who are men, 43.6% said they would be more likely to vote for a member of Congress who voted for The Affordable Care Act, versus 39.2% who would be less likely. Among women, however, 45.4% are more likely to vote against a pro-Obamacare candidate versus 29.1% who would vote for an Obamacare supporter.

Harold noted that married women have the strongest antipathy to the Affordable Care Act, opposing it 50.3% to 24.2%.

ABOUT THE POLL:  The Poll was conducted by the Robert Morris University Polling Institute Powered by Trib Total Media.  Polling by the Institute is conducted on a regular basis and may also include spontaneous polling on occurring events.

METHODOLOGY:  The Poll sampled opinions of 1006 Americans and was approximately proportional to state population contribution nationwide.  The survey was conducted February 15 – 21, 2014.  All surveys were conducted using an online survey instrument. The poll has a +/- 3.0 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level on a composite basis. 

ABOUT ROBERT MORRIS UNIVERSITY:  Robert Morris University, founded in 1921, is a private, four-year institution with an enrollment of approximately 5,000 undergraduate and graduate students. The university offers 60 undergraduate and 20 graduate programs. An estimated 22,000 alumni live and work in western Pennsylvania.

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